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MOSCOW, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Russia's economy is set to grow by 2.5% or more in 2023, while inflation is expected to be around 6%, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted on Saturday as saying. The central bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5%-2.5% this year. He forecast inflation would return to the target of 4% in 2024. The central bank has forecast it will fall to 5.0%-6.5% this year. "We together with the Central Bank will be taking all measures to bring inflation down to our targeted level," Siluanov said.
Persons: Anton Siluanov, Siluanov, Ksenia Orlova, Mark Trevelyan Organizations: Central Bank, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW
"Pro-inflationary risks have increased significantly over the medium-term horizon," the bank said in a statement. The central bank raised its year-end forecast for inflation - now just below 4% - to 5.0-6.5% from 4.5-6.5%, and said it was holding open the possibility of further hikes at future meetings. "The much larger-than-expected 100bp interest rate hike ... underscores policymakers’ concerns about inflation risks," said William Jackson, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economics. Alfa Bank Chief Economist Natalia Orlova said the rate hike looked like a reaction to the situation on the currency market, given that the other inflation pressures mentioned had been evident at the previous central bank meeting on June 9. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will shed more light on the bank's forecasts and policy in a media briefing at 1200 GMT.
Persons: William Jackson, Natalia Orlova, Wagner, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Alexander Marrow, Andrew Osborn, Kevin Liffey Organizations: Reuters, Capital Economics, Alfa Bank, Central Bank Governor, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow
But based on Friday's figures, Russia posted a surplus in March of 181 billion roubles, improving on deficits of 821 billion roubles in February and 1.76 trillion roubles in January. Spending accelerated 34% in the quarter to 8.1 trillion roubles, the preliminary data showed. Overall government income was down 20.8% in the quarter compared with 2022 at 5.7 trillion roubles, led by a 45% dive in energy revenues to 1.64 trillion roubles, the data showed. "The large budget deficit...increases nervousness on the market in relation to the price that geopolitical tensions are costing, and requires efforts directed at improving budget revenues," she said. The central bank has repeatedly warned that the budget deficit poses inflationary risks and may compel it to raise interest rates from the current 7.5%.
Last week's official data showed annual industrial output decline slowed in February, largely thanks to the defence sector, offsetting some of the damage wrought mainly by sanctions on Russia's key energy exports. Russian industrial output fell 1.7% year-on-year in February after a 2.4% drop in January, data from the federal statistics service Rosstat showed. Polevoy estimated that non-defence industrial production shrank about 8% year-on-year, while output of sectors with a high share of state defence orders jumped 36%. The decline in energy revenues has pushed Russia's budget deficit to $34 billion in January-February, compared with a surplus of $4 billion in 2022. LONG-TERM DECLINEAn independent study last month suggested Russia's middle class will shrink as social inequality grows, even if sanctions get relaxed.
Russia’s economy did weaken as a result. “The Russian economy and system of government have turned out to be much stronger than the West believed,” Putin said in a speech to Russia’s parliament Tuesday. The bloc, which dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas last year, officially banned most imports of Russian crude oil by sea in December. Russia’s oil problemIn fact, Russia’s export revenue from oil rose last year. On the declineThe International Monetary Fund still expects Russia’s economy to expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% the next.
"The growing dependence of the budget on oil raises concerns," Alfa Bank said in a note that warned a decline in revenue from gas and oil product exports "looms on the horizon." Analysts say that as the government increased spending by more than a quarter in 2022, in part to finance its military in Ukraine, the oil price required to balance the budget jumped from $67 to $101 a barrel. "When there is a big gap between the actual price (of oil) and the balancing price, it cannot be sustainably covered by borrowing," said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. VAT rates, profit taxes and income tax would not be changed, Sazanov said, but other industries may face a higher tax bill. The measures are expected to net an additional 3.6 trillion roubles for the Russian budget over three years.
After initially dire predictions of a double-digit GDP slump, analysts and officials have gradually been improving forecasts as the Russian economy demonstrates better-than-anticipated resilience. But the decline will continue at a similar pace in 2023, with analysts now forecasting a 2.5% drop. Over time, economists have acknowledged that the contraction is likely to be less sudden, but more prolonged than first expected. "We cannot rule out a deeper contraction next year when compared with 2022, it could be 5-6%." After a rate hold on Dec. 16, the bank will continue easing monetary policy in 2023, the poll suggested, with the key rate set to end next year at 6.75%.
Piaţa Unirii Principatelor 1 în intervalul de timp între 09:00 - 11:00 pentru lucrări de modernizare a echipamentelor electrice Chişinău, sectorul Buiucani, or. noncasnic) parțial, în intervalul de timp între 08:30 - 18:00 pentru lucrări de reparaţie a echipamentului electric Comrat (UTA Găgăuzia): or. Lenin parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:30 - 15:00 pentru lucrări de reparaţie a echipamentului electrics. Baurci 9038, 9040 ( cons. noncasnici) parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:00 - 16:00 pentru lucrări de reparaţie a echipamentului electrics. Baurci: str. noncasnici) parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:20 - 17:00 pentru lucrări de reparaţie a echipamentului electrics. Bălăbănești 9040 ( cons.
Persons: ., Traian, Barbu Lăutaru, Toma, Tudor Vladimirescu, Boris Glavan, Ioan Vodă, Ion, Constantin Stamati, Gheorghe Madan, Serghei Lazo, Ştefan cel Mare, Vasile Alecsandri, Constantin Stere, Dimitrie Cantemir, Iurie Gagarin, Mihail, Alexandru cel Bun, Alexei Mateevici, Cibotaru V, Bogdan Petriceicu, Cantemir, Ştefan Vodă, Lenin, Alexandr Puşkin, Alexandr Suvorov, Carl Marx, Felix Dzerjinschi, Grigore, Ioana Iakir, Ivan Turghenev, Kutuzov, Mihail Lomonosov, Serghei Kirov, Vladimir Maiacovski, Alecu Russo, Anna, Alexandru, Mihai Kogălniceanu, Mitropolit Varlaam, Ion Creangă, Mihai Eminescu, Let, Eugen Ungureanu, Grigore Vieru, Mihail Lermontov, Decebal, Mihai Viteazul, Negrea, . Malcoci, August, Grigore Ureche, Ştefan, Mare, Vodă, Suvorov, Gheorghe Asachi, Grigore Cotovschi, Miciurin, Vladimir Organizations: Î.C.S Premier Energy, Dacia, Lvov, UTA, August, Pobeda Locations: Î.C.S, Chişinău, 110B, 110C, Podgorenilor, Renaşterii, Babii, Dacia, Kiev, Basarabia, Chişinăului, șos, Hîncești, Anenii Noi, Bulboaca, Roşcani, Cahul, Doinelor, Colibași, Libertăţii, Octeabriscaea, Recea, Comrat, UTA Găgăuzia, Baurci, Bolinicinaea, Cosmonavtov, Cuibîşeva, Iscra, Molodejnaea, Orlova, Staroseliscaea, Şcolinaea, Şorsa, Căușeni, Alba Iulia, Tighina, Sălcuța, Colhoznicilor, Mihailovca, Criuleni, Molovata, Corjova, Plopilor, Trandafirilor, Lăpușna, Matrosov, Podiş, Sofia, Ialoveni, Malcoci, Albișoara, Suruceni, Leova, Nisporeni, Bălănești, Cojedub, Talmaza
Universitățile din rusia amenință studenții cu exmatricularea pentru participarea la mitinguri neautorizate organizate de susținătorii lui Alexei Navalny. Potrivit acesteia, postările din grupurile oficiale ale universității sunt cele care „aruncă o umbră asupra universității” și nu studenții care participă la acțiuni. Universitatea de Stat din BashkiriaUniversitatea de Stat din Bashkiria a anunțat sâmbătă, 23 ianuarie, o zi academică. Mai târziu, Orlova le-a trimis studenților o declarație că nici ea, nici facultatea nu au nimic de-a face cu acest mailing. Dmitry Navosha, fondatorul Fondului pentru solidaritate cu bielorușii concediați de la muncă pentru participarea la mitinguri, a numit intimidarea studenților ruși cu exmatricularea pentru participarea la mitinguri „o practică totalitară lukashistă importată de Rusia”.
Persons: Alexei Navalny, Irina, , Lydia Orlova, Eduard Ibragimov, Mihail Lobanov, Lobanov, Dmitry, Alexander Lukashenko, Mihail, Solidaritatea, Le Organizations: Universitatea, Universității, Universitatea din, Stat, Bashkiria, Universitatea Rusă, Federației, Universitatea Financiară, Universității Financiare, Management, Universității de Stat, Universitatea Națională, Universitatea de Stat Locations: rusia, Kostroma, Universității de, Federației Ruse, Universitatea din Kostroma, Ruse, Moscova, necoordonat, Rusia, Belarus
Vasile Alecsandri, Ștefan cel Mare parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:15 - 17:00 pentru lucrări de defrișare şi tăiere a crengilors. Hulboaca: str. Calinina, Comsomoliscaea, Cosmonavtov, Staroseliscaea, Şorsa parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:00 - 16:00 pentru lucrări de defrișare şi tăiere a crengilors. Etulia: str. Molodejnaea, Jirnovaaea parțial, în intervalul de timp între 08:50 - 18:00 pentru lucrări de reconstrucţie a liniei electrice aerienes. Crocmaz: str. Lenin, Naberejnaea, Crocmaz, Suvorov parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:45 - 17:15 pentru lucrări de schimbare sau montare a pilonilors. Ermoclia: str. Vasilii Ceapaev, Volontirovscaea, Ermoclia parțial, în intervalul de timp între 09:00 - 17:00 pentru lucrări de defrișare şi tăiere a crengilors. Carahasani: str.
Persons: A . Russo, Voievod, Vasile Alecsandri, Ștefan cel Mare, August, Alexandru cel Bun, Alexei Mateevici, Constantin Negruzzi, Decebal, Ion Creangă, Maria Drăgan, Mihai Eminescu, Mihai Sadoveanu, Mihai Viteazul, Miron Costin, Octavian Goga, Vineri, Ştefan cel Mare, Veronica Micle, Ana Barbu, Ave Maria, Ilie Fulga, Alexandru Marinescu, Petru Marinescu, Petru Rareş, Traian, Vasile Lupu, Cantemir, Boris Glavan, Egor Gaidar, Gheorghi Jucov, Lenin, Maria, Oleg Coşevoi, Suvorov, Vasilii, Let, Carl Marx, Felix Dzerjinschi, Grigore, Ioana Iakir, Ivan Turghenev, Mihail Lomonosov, Serghei Lazo, Vladimir Maiacovski, Alexandr Puşkin, Iurie Gagarin, Maxim Gorki, Toma, Petru Frunze, Mihail, . Malcoci, . Donici, Ştefan Vodă, Vasilii Ceapaev, Grigore Cotovschi Organizations: Î.C.S Premier Energy, Tineretului, UTA, Mira, Vasilii Locations: Î.C.S, Chişinău, Sarmizegetusa, Sihastrului, Moscova, Agricola, Alba Iulia, I, Prieteniei, com, Stăuceni, Bucovinei, Bujorilor, Chicago, Moldoviţa, Stejarilor, Bulboaca, Independenţei, Morilor, Serilor, Tighina, Cahul, Comrat, UTA Găgăuzia, Lunga, Acaţievaia, Cikalov, Drujbî, Kalinin, Kosîghin, Orehovaea, Persicovaea, Sîrtmaci, Vinogradnaea, Cosmonavtov, Cuibîşeva, Iscra, Octeabriscaea, Sovetscaea, Staroseliscaea, Şcolinaea, Calinina, Comsomoliscaea, Ciapaeva, Molodejnaea, Novaea, Ogorodnaea, Pionerscaea, Sadovaea, Călărași, Căușeni, Criuleni, Femeii, Rădiului, Sărata, Galbenă, Criucova, Ialoveni, Costești, Leova, Nisporeni, Vărzărești, Seliște, Orhei, Susleni, Naberejnaea, Crocmaz, Volontirovscaea, Carahasani
Total: 10